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Microsystems, Electronics and Acoustics
ISSN 2523-4447 · e‑ISSN 2523-4455 Open Access · CC BY-SA 4.0
Vol. 24 · Issue 2 · 2019 Apr 30, 2019 Microsystems and Physical Electronics

Diagnosis and Forecasting of the Levels of Electrical Consumption of Iron Ore Mines

OD
Oleh Vikotorovych Dozorenko Corresponding Криворізький національний університет Ukraine
IS
Ihor Olehovych Sinchuk Криворізький національний університет Ukraine
OS
Oleh Mykolaiovych Sinchuk Криворізький національний університет Ukraine
Pages25-32 PublishedApr 30, 2019
VOL 24 · ISS 2 · 2019 View issue

Abstract

The article presents the results of experimental studies on the estimation of electricity consumption levels by iron ore mines in Ukraine. Using the systematic research, and highlighting the strategic goal - the optimal distribution of electricity between subsystems of the production system, proposed decomposition of objectives. The proposed decomposition allows us to isolate the production subsystems and investigate each separately. According to each separate subsystem, a set of analytical procedures for diagnostic analysis is used in conjunction with regression models and forecast models. Integrative obtained characteristics were obtained general system evaluations. The approved thesis on the types of industrial enterprises under investigation is a system of energy-intensive enterprises. It is proved that the levels of electric energy consumption functionally depend on the line of influential technological factors of enterprises. It is determined that the level of influence of these factors varies among themselves, and observations show the character individually for each enterprise. The cost characteristics of electricity consumption are investigated. In the conditions of constant increase of tariffs for electricity consumed and existing variables in the time of daily tariffs for electricity (peak, semi-fire, and night), iron ore enterprises can maneuver in hours of the day by volume of electricity consumption. This will enable enterprises to reduce their «accounts» for consumed electricity. That is, the electricity tariff in the day time should serve as an input for the target function, in order to obtain a solution that would minimize the cost of payment for consumed electricity by maximizing the change in electrical loads in the hours of the day. Multi-factor models have been formed to determine the relationship between electricity consumption and the most influential factors. Between this «blind» formalization of this process will not give a positive. Comprehensive studies of this process have promising results in terms of highlighting the potential for reaching the level of electrical energy efficiency. The proposed methodology can be used to determine the optimal response in the direction of seeking ways to increase the energy efficiency of any industry, any enterprise, where variables are available in clock-hour tariffs. Thematic studies of iron ore enterprises show that the change in the levels of electricity consumption in the hours of the day with the transition of electricity consumption levels from the «peak» to «night» has a significant effect. In connection with the above, it is proposed, on the basis of regression models, a unique method of forecast estimation of electricity consumption levels, taking into account aspects of individual influence of each factor at the consumption level of any mining enterprise. It is believed that an innovative approach to the harmonization of diagnostic methods, forecasting on the basis of system analysis provides an opportunity to solve the problem of optimizing the distribution of electricity consumption for mining companies in order to ensure power efficiency. Ref. 16, fig. 8, tabl. 6.

Keywords

References

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