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KPI Science News
ISSN 2617-5509 · e‑ISSN 2663-7472 Open Access · CC BY 4.0
Vol. 140 · Issue 3 · 2025 Sep 30, 2025 article

A METHOD FOR ADJUSTING THE SOCIAL TENSION INDEX BASED ON METHODS FOR ASSESSING THE CONSISTENCY OF EXPERT ESTIMATES

MS
Maksym Shchoholiev Corresponding NTUU “Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute”, Applied Mathematics Department, Ukraine Ukraine
VT
Vitaliy Tsyganok Institute for Information Recording of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Ukraine Ukraine
PublishedSep 30, 2025
PDF (Ukrainian)
KPISN 3 VOL 140 · 3
VOL 140 · ISS 3 · 2025 View issue

Abstract

Problem. Social tension is the subject of numerous contemporary sociological studies due to its significant impact on the effectiveness of decision-making both at the governmental level and in business contexts. Social tension can be assessed by analyzing public reactions to news events in social networks. However, obtaining generalized estimates of the impact of news events on increasing levels of social tension is complicated by the fact that audiences of different information channels may hold significantly different opinions about the same event. The applicability of methods for assessing the consistency of expert estimates to problems that do not involve traditional expert input remains insufficiently studied. Objective. To develop and test a method for adjusting the social tension index using methods for assessing the consistency of expert estimates. Methodology of implementation. The implementation of the method for adjusting the social tension index involves the interaction between the knowledge base of a decision support system and a method for assessing the consistency of expert estimates, based on minimizing the total distance between all pairwise estimates. Results. A method for adjusting the social tension index based on methods for assessing the consistency of expert estimates is proposed. A procedure for determining a threshold consistency level for evaluating the impact of news events on social tension is introduced. Applying the proposed method for adjusting the social tension index makes it possible to improve the validity of social tension assessments. Conclusions. The application of the proposed method for adjusting the social tension index based on methods for assessing the consistency of expert estimates enhances the validity of social tension assessments in cases where the consistency index among estimates of news event impacts falls below the defined threshold.

Keywords

#Social tension #social networks #news event #decision support system #consistency of estimates #an aggregation-adequate level of consistency

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